Monday, April 13, 2015

What We Know (and What We Don’t) About Predicting Suicide Risk

By Dr. Jane Pearson, National Institute of Mental Health & Action Alliance; Dr. Lisa Colpe, National Institute of Mental Health; and Colleen Carr, National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention Secretariat

Screening for suicide risk is common to most suicide prevention efforts and clinical practices that aim to identify at-risk individuals. To reduce suicide’s burden, there are a number of research-supported screening and risk detection tools to employ, but there is no doubt that further research is necessary to better understand the various factors that put people at risk of suicide.

The Continuum of Suicide Risk
Ideas about screening reflect our assumptions about a continuum of suicide risk—it is assumed there is a progression of suicide ideation, plans and eventual behavior (i.e., suicide attempts, suicide death). For example, multinational surveys have found that about a third of individuals who think about suicide make a plan and about a third go on to attempt suicide. Meanwhile, another subgroup reports having made an attempt with little or no ideation or planning.

Active versus Passive Ideation
Current approaches to assessing risk are heavily weighted toward identifying active ideation with a plan versus passive ideation (e.g., desire for death). However, some studies have found that passive ideation is just as strongly associated with morbidity as active ideation.

Screening Approaches
Many stakeholders consider screening for suicide risk an essential step in reducing suicides—and there are many opportunities to screen. Holding an annual depression screening day in the workplace or a school screening event following a suicide are two community examples. Screenings can be standalone, web-based for use in public settings or clinical tools (e.g., PHQ-9) integrated into primary care or other intake procedures to detect and monitor depression with suicide ideation. In fact, research looking at a large set of electronic health record data found a six-fold increased risk for suicide attempt (includes 709 attempts and 46 deaths) if someone responded ‘every day’ to the question, “Over the past two weeks, how often have you been bothered by thoughts that you would be better off dead, or hurting yourself in some way?” on PHQ-9.

Screening within Health Systems
Screening practices are ahead of research. The Joint Commission recommends screening in all medical care settings to prevent suicide attempts and deaths. However, health care settings vary with regard to the proportion of patients at risk and the steps necessary to get identified patients to adequate care. In any setting, risk detection alone will not reduce suicide. Assessment, adequate intervention and ongoing monitoring must support screening and detection efforts to have the desired impact of reduced suicidal behavior.

Promising Research
Research links neurocognitive science with risk detection and screening. For example, the Suicide Implicit Association Task (IAT) has shown to improve prediction of who will attempt suicide in the future. It examines reaction times to ‘life’ and ‘death’ words and can be administered on the computer in 5-10 minutes. It is currently being studied in emergency department environments with both youth and adults.

Recent research has also identified specific genetic markers for suicidal behavior, but the studies require replication before having a role in clinical practice.

How Can Risk Detection Contribute to Achieving a 20% Reduction in Suicide?
There are a number of ways to model how our nation could achieve a 20% reduction in suicides. One strategy is to stratify risk and identify those in the high-risk group due to risk factors and those in the low-risk group due to risk and protective factors. If we can identify those in the high-risk group and intervene so we move more individuals into the lower part of the triangle (see graphic), we can begin to reduce suicide’s burden on our nation.


On January 29, the National Council launched a six-part webinar series highlighting the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention’s Prioritized Research Agenda for Suicide Prevention: An Action Plan to Save Lives. This series is a collaborative effort between the National Council for Behavioral Health,National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention and the National Institute of Mental Health. Subsequent webinars will describe how this current understanding influences detecting those at risk, clinical care and services, as well as highlighting a number of the pressing research needs to reduce the burden of suicide. For more information about this webinar series, see Linda Rosenberg’s recent blog post announcing this collaboration.

This post has been cross-posted on the National Council for Behavioral Health site.

Monday, April 6, 2015

The Four Factors that Lead to (and Protect Against) Suicide

By Dr. Jane Pearson, National Institute of Mental Health & Action Alliance; Dr. Elizabeth Ballard, National Institute of Mental Health; and Colleen Carr, National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention Secretariat

The ultimate answer to “Why do people become suicidal?” is complex, and as depicted in the figure below, research has focused on several long- and short-term risk factors that interact to place an individual at increased suicide risk.

1. Social Determinants

Healthy connectedness with family members, neighborhoods, cultural groups and society can serve as a protective factor against suicide. Conversely, social isolation is associated with increased risk. Social networks can be leveraged to promote protective influences across all ages. Young people’s attachment to their family and schools can serve as a protective factor with “school-connected” teens exhibiting a decreased risk for suicidal behavior over time. Interventions that increase healthy connections have been related to reduced suicide risk in older Japanese adults.

At the same time, certain types of social networks can relate to increased suicide risk, both in person and via media influences. Social networks can contribute to a “contagion” of suicidal behavior, potentially through imitation, idealizing and/or by ‘normalizing’ suicidal behavior. Media reporting of high-profile suicides also carries a concern for increased suicidal behavior.

2. Clinical Factors

Research has identified a host of clinical suicide risk factors. Psychiatric risk factors for suicide include depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress and addiction; physical symptoms include pain and insomnia. Suicide has been associated with specific cognitive symptoms such as suicidal thoughts, making a plan, hopelessness, feeling like a burden and impulsiveness. However, it is important to note that the vast majority of people with behavioral health and physical illness diagnoses do not kill themselves.

3. Neurocognitive Factors

There is a connection between suicide attempts and deficits in basic cognitive functions (e.g., attention, memory), executive performance (e.g., conceptual processes, reversal learning), impulse control, decision-making and implicit thought processes (e.g., implicit associations, like preference and self-esteem). The neurocognitive findings associated with suicide risk include motor impulsivity, decision-making, response inhibition, flexibility of response generation, self-monitoring/error-processing, sensitivity to others’ anger, impaired response to positive emotional stimuli, harm avoidance and an inability to delay rewards. Recent research demonstrates that teens who attempt suicide may have impaired decision making on tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Test.

None of these factors has been determined to be entirely specific to suicide—whether or not these factors can be used reliably as clinical predictors remains to be seen.

4. Biomarkers that Reflect Biological Processes

Early research provided some evidence that suicidal behavior is heritable. Twin studies report 36-43 percent heritability; non-fatal suicide attempts have heritability estimates of 17-45 percent, even after controlling for any psychiatric disorders. In addition, children are five times more likely to attempt suicide if a parent has a history of suicide attempts, and it may relate to impulsive aggression. Another example of tragic and toxic parent-child outcomes, between 10-40 percent of individuals who experience suicidal thoughts and behavior have a child abuse history.

Immune factors, patterns of brain activity observed with imaging and genetic variants, have all been studied to identify biomarkers that can help predict risk or resilience. Current research trends include serotonergic functioning, glutamatergic functioning and responsiveness to stress in the HPA (hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal) axis, which may be linked to childhood traumatic experiences.

At this point in time, there is no biomarker with diagnostic clinical utility.

There is a great deal to be hopeful about with regard to improving our understanding of why people consider and try to kill themselves. For more information and detailed citations on the information presented above, see the full Prioritized Research Agenda for Suicide Prevention: An Action Plan to Save Lives.

On January 29, the National Council launched a six-part webinar series highlighting the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention’s Prioritized Research Agenda for Suicide Prevention: An Action Plan to Save Lives. This series is a collaborative effort between the National Council for Behavioral Health, National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention and the National Institute of Mental Health. Subsequent webinars will describe how this current understanding influences detecting those at risk, clinical care and services, as well as highlighting a number of the pressing research needs to reduce the burden of suicide. For more information about this webinar series, see Linda Rosenberg’s recent blog post announcing this collaboration.
This post has been cross-posted on the National Council for Behavioral Health site.